Ok I'll start the board rolling. Who are your picks for the Breeders' Cup? Someone needs to get Bal over here with PPs ;)
I only included the Breeders Cup races.
2013 BREEDERS' CUP WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS PAST PEFORMANCES, POST TIME AND WAGERING SCHEDULE
All Times Pacific
Friday, Nov. 1
Race No. Race Time Wagering Options
6. Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. II) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/marathon.pdf) 1:45 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
7. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IT) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/juvturf.pdf) 2:25 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD, PICK 4
8. Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/dirtmile.pdf) 3:05 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
9. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. IT) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/juvfilturf.pdf) 3:50 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD, Super Hi 5
10. Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/distaff.pdf) 4:35 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, SpecialDD
Saturday, Nov. 2
Race No. Race Time Wagering Options
4. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/juvfil.pdf) 12:05 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD, PICK 4
5. Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. IT) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/fmturf.pdf) 12:43 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
6. Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/fmsprint.pdf) 1:21 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
7. Geico Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (gr. IT) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/turfsprint.pdf) 2:05 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD, PICK 6
8. Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/juvenile.pdf) 2:43 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
9. Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. IT) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/turf.pdf) 3:22 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD, PICK 4
10. Xpressbet Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/sprint.pdf) 4:01 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, DD
11. Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. IT) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/mile.pdf) 4:40 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD
12. Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) (http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/classic.pdf) 5:35 pm WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, Super Hi 5
Wow, picks for Breeder's Cup? Is that actual picks or sentimental favorites or both? :D Okay here goes nothing and I really do mean nothing :D Someday I'll post my Derby picks versus horses that have won and you'll see what I mean!
Now that post positions were drawn let me update this list!
Marathon - Blueskiesnrainbows (I just LOVE this guy!)
Juvenile Turf - Bobby's Kitten
Dirt Mile - I would love to see Alpha win
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Kitten Kaboodle
Distaff - Princess Of Sylmar
Juvenile Fillies - Untapable
Filly & Mare Turf - I would love to see Marketing Mix win since I'm such a Medaglia D'Oro fan but I think Laughing is just too good
Filly & Mare Sprint - Judy The Beauty
Turf Sprint - Mizdirection
Juvenile - Strong Mandate
Turf - Little Mike
Sprint - Trinniberg
Mile - Silver Max
Classic - Palace Malice
And now you can see why I only bet the minimum - most of those are sentimental picks.
I can't really post picks since I haven't even gone through all the advance pps yet, and things will most certainly change once the pp draw has occurred, but here some tentative/prelim picks for the races I have looked at:
FM Turf
Romantica- my top pick right now. I think she will handle the firm SA turf, is classy enough, and is proficient at 10F.
Dank- race at AP may have been an outlier, but it was a monster race. If she can replicate that here, then she's in the mix.
Laughing- may get a pace advantage as there is not much other early speed, save rank outsider Vionnet. 10F is stretching it, but could get an easy run up front.
Marketing Mix (and to a lesser extent, Tiz Flirtatious) are the only other two that really interest me. I assume The Fugue will go to the Turf.
Juv. Fillies
Untapable- Barring a bad post she is my top pick. She's already a G2 winner at the distance/configuration, while the other top 2 have question marks imo.
Artemis Agrotera- two turns is the question, but she is fast enough given her best effort. Running style aids her chances.
Sweet Reason- might be the best here, but 2 turns again is a question, plus slop form was (mildly) better than fast track, and must overcome a likely slow start yet again.
I assume My Conquistadory will go to the turf race (and she should imo).
...my only other general thought right now is that Beholder may be able to steal the Distaff, depending on which Royal Delta shows up. Sylmar is a veritable monster, but she needs to break well and be more forwardly placed in this shortest of fields.
I am making just 3 wagers all weekend
1. Beholder
2. Diamond Bachelor
3. Vorda
I'm wishing you ALL the best of luck wagering on these races. Get a signer or two.
Cigarshop
Quote from: peeptoad on October 25, 2013, 06:54:15 AM
...my only other general thought right now is that Beholder may be able to steal the Distaff, depending on which Royal Delta shows up. Sylmar is a veritable monster, but she needs to break well and be more forwardly placed in this shortest of fields.
I'm curious to see what the pace scenario will be in the Distaff, because both Royal Delta and Beholder could be on the lead. Whether Beholder can *relax* on the lead with RD on her flank is another question.
MUCHO MACHO MAN for the Classic. He's looked terrific out there, and I think he and Stevens are a match made in horse heaven,.
PRIVATE ZONE for the Sprint. If I needed another reason to pick him, Candyman E, who finished lengths behind him in the Vosburgh, just annihilated a good field at Belmont.
As much as I want to see Groupie Doll take her Sprint, I think this year she'll need a perfect trip and some luck to do it. So I'll go with DANCE TO BRISTOL in an upset.
INDIAN JONES/OLD TIME HOCKEY for the Marathon -- 'cause they are Smarties. ;-)
With some luck in the draw, I think Beholder could take Distaff. The Princess would have to overcome the horrible speed bias at Santa Anita, and I am not sure that the pace will be blazing. My current thought is that Beholder and Royal Delta run 1-2.
I have just about finished off my BC handicapping for this season. Nothing is more exciting to me than pouring over all the data crunching the numbers and trying to come to a conclusion.
For me the experience of coming up with the picks is actually more fun than seeing if the picks were correct!
For all my work and analysis and I have to say that I am still up in the air about 2 races. The Marathon and the Classic.
The Marathon is confusing because I hardly care and no one seems like a good option.
The Classic has me confused because I have a basket of horses that I think could all win and would likely take turns winning this race if they ran it 10 times. The question is "whose turn is it?" All of my normal analysis and statistical separation techniques haven't really given me much help on this file.
As a matter of interest I thought that I would once again post the top ranked KSR horse for each BC race.
I have only been able to apply the theory to the last 104 BC races but over that time the top ranked (fastest) horse has won 23% of the time.
Here are the top ranked horses for each race this year
Marathon - Worldly
Juvenile Turf - Aotearoa
Dirt Mile - Verrazano
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Testa Rossi
Distaff - Royal Delta
Juvenile Fillies - Sweet Reason
FM Turf - Dank
FM Sprint - Groupie Doll
Turf Sprint - Unbridled's Note
Juvenile - Mexikoma
Turf - Point of Entry
Sprint - Private Zone
Mile - Wise Dan
Classic - Game On Dude
I also have a pet project for the Breeders' Cup called the 20/20 which is essentially a statistical profiling system.
A profile has been created for every race aside from the Marathon. Here are the perfect qualifiers below
Juvenile Turf - Aotearoa/Bashart/Bobby's Kitten/Outstrip/Poker Player
Dirt Mile - Golden Ticket/Pants On Fire/Verrazano
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Al Thakhira/Chriselliam/Clenor/My Conquestadory/Testa Rossi
Distaff - Princess of Sylmar/Royal Delta
Juvenile Fillies - Artemis Agrotera/Sweet Reason
FM Turf - Laughing/Marketing Mix/Tiz Flirtatious
FM Sprint - Dance to Bristol/Groupie Doll/Judy the Beauty/Sweet Lulu
Turf Sprint - Chips All In/Mizdirection/Unbridled's Note
Juvenile - Diamond Bachelor/Havana/Tap It Rich
Turf - Indy Point/Little Mike/Point of Entry/The Fugue
Sprint - Private Zone
Mile - No Qualifiers
Classic - Game On Dude/Flat Out/Fort Larned/Mucho Macho Man
39 Qualifiers over 12 races. The Mile has no perfect qualifiers this year.
From the post position thread where I thought it would be easiest to do the picks from since they were listed right there...in order of predicted finish... (SMILE)
Quote from: Man o Taz on October 29, 2013, 08:03:36 AM
Classic
Mucho Macho Man
Game On Dude
Ron The Greek
Bubble - Declaration of War
Distaff
Princess of Sylmar
Royal Delta
Close Hatches
Filly & Mare Turf
Laughing
Dank
Kitten's Dumplings
Filly & Mare Sprint
Groupie Doll
Sweet Lulu
Renee's Titan
Mile
Silver Max
Wise Dan
Olympic Glory
Turf
Little Mike
The Fugue
Point of Entry
BC Sprint
Trinniberg
Secret Circle
Private Zone
BC Dirt Mile
Verrazano
Goldencents
Centralillintelligence
BC Juvenile
Havana
Smarty's Echo
Tap It Rich
BC Juvenile Fillies
Rosalind
Secret Compass
Concave
BC Juvenile Turf
Wilshire Boulevard
Bobby's Kitten
Bashart
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Kitten Kaboodle
Dancing House
Sky Painter
BC Marathon
Blueskiesnrainbows
Sunsoutgunsout
Pool Play
My own record in the Breeders' Cup is 168-33-30-22. That's from single selections for each race since 1996.
The winning percentage is low so I'm hoping to improve on that this year.
My highest total number of winners came in 2010 when I went 4 for 14. My best winning percentage came in 1997 when I went 3 for 7.
2005 was my worst year when I went 8-0-2-2.
Quote from: Kennedy on October 30, 2013, 12:09:32 PM
I also have a pet project for the Breeders' Cup called the 20/20 which is essentially a statistical profiling system.
A profile has been created for every race aside from the Marathon. Here are the perfect qualifiers below
Juvenile Turf - Aotearoa/Bashart/Bobby's Kitten/Outstrip/Poker Player
Dirt Mile - Golden Ticket/Pants On Fire/Verrazano
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Al Thakhira/Chriselliam/Clenor/My Conquestadory/Testa Rossi
Distaff - Princess of Sylmar/Royal Delta
Juvenile Fillies - Artemis Agrotera/Sweet Reason
FM Turf - Laughing/Marketing Mix/Tiz Flirtatious
FM Sprint - Dance to Bristol/Groupie Doll/Judy the Beauty/Sweet Lulu
Turf Sprint - Chips All In/Mizdirection/Unbridled's Note
Juvenile - Diamond Bachelor/Havana/Tap It Rich
Turf - Indy Point/Little Mike/Point of Entry/The Fugue
Sprint - Private Zone
Mile - No Qualifiers
Classic - Game On Dude/Flat Out/Fort Larned/Mucho Macho Man
39 Qualifiers over 12 races. The Mile has no perfect qualifiers this year.
I'm curious to know how not even Wise Dan himself was a perfect qualifier for the Mile.
Quote from: pointgivenfan on October 30, 2013, 01:00:00 PM
I'm curious to know how not even Wise Dan himself was a perfect qualifier for the Mile.
He wasn't even close, but neither was he perfect last year. One of the statistical requirements is that the horse in question earn their highest lifetime figure on the grass. Dan's best number came on Keeneland's Poly. He is the only horse in the history of this race to have successfully defied that criteria.
Dan had 3 strikes against him this year for his lack of recent layoff, off surface prep race and lifetime best figure not being earned on the grass.
Quote from: Kennedy on October 30, 2013, 01:44:46 PM
Quote from: pointgivenfan on October 30, 2013, 01:00:00 PM
I'm curious to know how not even Wise Dan himself was a perfect qualifier for the Mile.
He wasn't even close, but neither was he perfect last year. One of the statistical requirements is that the horse in question earn their highest lifetime figure on the grass. Dan's best number came on Keeneland's Poly. He is the only horse in the history of this race to have successfully defied that criteria.
Dan had 3 strikes against him this year for his lack of recent layoff, off surface prep race and lifetime best figure not being earned on the grass.
I think Wise Dan is vulnerable this year. I'm curious to know what the reason was for Brite Thought's long layoff. On his best days this horse is lightning fast, but that layoff is a red flag.
Mine are hung out to dry in Ballerinas contests on the handicapping board. Too lazy to type them over.
Quote from: Kennedy on October 30, 2013, 01:44:46 PM
Quote from: pointgivenfan on October 30, 2013, 01:00:00 PM
I'm curious to know how not even Wise Dan himself was a perfect qualifier for the Mile.
He wasn't even close, but neither was he perfect last year. One of the statistical requirements is that the horse in question earn their highest lifetime figure on the grass. Dan's best number came on Keeneland's Poly. He is the only horse in the history of this race to have successfully defied that criteria.
Dan had 3 strikes against him this year for his lack of recent layoff, off surface prep race and lifetime best figure not being earned on the grass.
Wouldn't Game on Dude's prep race technically be "off-surface"?
Game on Dude isn't running in the Mile :)
It isn't one profile stretched over 13 races. It's 13 different profiles.
The only other time (since 1995 when my data begins) the Mile had 0 perfect qualifiers was 1995. That year the tri was swept by horses with 1 strike against.
It will be interesting to see what happens this year. The BC Mile 20/20 profile has identified 31 perfect qualifiers from 18 runnings. There are 13 winners among those 31. Their combined record is 31-13-4-4 and technically it's 13 from 17 races because one race had no qualifiers.
Quote from: Kennedy on October 31, 2013, 06:58:07 AM
Game on Dude isn't running in the Mile :)
It isn't one profile stretched over 13 races. It's 13 different profiles.
The only other time (since 1995 when my data begins) the Mile had 0 perfect qualifiers was 1995. That year the tri was swept by horses with 1 strike against.
It will be interesting to see what happens this year. The BC Mile 20/20 profile has identified 31 perfect qualifiers from 18 runnings. There are 13 winners among those 31. Their combined record is 31-13-4-4 and technically it's 13 from 17 races because one race had no qualifiers.
I meant for the Classic, clearly. ;)
Poly v dirt, etc, etc.
Are you saying each race has different qualifiers (i.e. the surface of the last prep race for Classic entrants is not a qualifier for that race)?
Quote from: pointgivenfan on October 31, 2013, 07:09:04 AM
I meant for the Classic, clearly. ;)
Poly v dirt, etc, etc.
Are you saying each race has different qualifiers (i.e. the surface of the last prep race for Classic entrants is not a qualifier for that race)?
Right. I mean it is a "Win and you're in" prep for the BC Classic, so I assume it would be a qualifier for the Classic even though its at 9 furlongs vs. 10.
Quote from: Man o Taz on October 31, 2013, 07:23:50 AM
Quote from: pointgivenfan on October 31, 2013, 07:09:04 AM
I meant for the Classic, clearly. ;)
Poly v dirt, etc, etc.
Are you saying each race has different qualifiers (i.e. the surface of the last prep race for Classic entrants is not a qualifier for that race)?
Right. I mean it is a "Win and you're in" prep for the BC Classic, so I assume it would be a qualifier for the Classic even though its at 9 furlongs vs. 10.
...I was asking about his 20/20 thing.
'Capped the Friday races about as much as I will have time for... saving most of my energy for the Saturday races, though there are a couple of longshots I like on Friday. In terms of betting I probably will only shell out cash for the Dirt Mile, Juv Fillies Turf and possibly the Juv Turf.
Top 3 picks/race in order of preference:
SA6 Marathon
#7 London Bridge
#10 Worldly
#5 Suns Out Guns Out
SA7 Juv Turf
#4 Outstrip
#5 Bobbys Kitten
#13 Bashart
SA8 Dirt Mile
#4 Brujo De Olleros
#11 Pants on Fire
#2 Golden Ticket
(may also throw either Verrazano or Hymn Book into an exacta box with these guys. Pants on Fire would be my top pick if not for the post).
SA9 Juv Fillies Turf
#8 Chriselliam
#14 My Conquistadory
#12 Testa Rossi
SA10 Distaff
#6 Princess of Sylmar
#4 Royal Delta
#5 Beholder
Quote from: pointgivenfan on October 31, 2013, 07:09:04 AM
Poly v dirt, etc, etc.
Are you saying each race has different qualifiers (i.e. the surface of the last prep race for Classic entrants is not a qualifier for that race)?
Correct. Each race has separate criteria. They could be the same but in most cases they are not.
Marathon
I think that anytime I get around to looking at this race I end up at the same place. I don't care and I wouldn't even bother with it unless it had a Breeders' Cup designation. I hope they just ditch this race soon. But getting into the actual race for this year I have a tepid preference for Suns Out Guns Out. No real reason other than Romans getting some good results lately and this horse is one of the few without real speed. Although the addition of blinkers may put him more into the race. Leparoux is patient so perhaps this guy can out-wobble the rest. Indian Jones is the form horse and he likely has a big change to be favored but it's hard to take a shorter price in a race like this. Ever Rider will get some respect from me but he isn't Calidoscopio and he'll be a fraction of the price. He could win but I don't like his more speedy profile and the shorter price.
Suns Out Guns Out
Indian Jones
Ever Rider
Juvenile Turf
A very interesting contest with a lot of ways to go. For me it starts with the home grown talent. Bobby's Kitten is a phenomenal talent in the making. In both of his wins he absolutely bolted on the field and left his rivals with no chance. He could do that same thing to this group. Brown has been trying to get him to settle and he claims that he is succeeding. I guess we'll see once the gates open. Although I have a lot of respect for Bobby's Kitten I'm actually going elsewhere with my primary play for this race. I think that Bashart stands out as significant value despite the horrendous post. Bashart really impressed me in his last three races. He seems to be quite tough and professional for his age. I think he has the mental attributes necessary for this wide post plus no one for about 8 slots to his inside have any natural speed. I thought Bashart was unlucky in his last race. The trip did him no favors and he still could have won with a more patient approach. I think Velasquez will get it right this time. I don't want to exclude the Europeans entirely from this race. I think that Outstrip, Wilshire Boulevard and Giovanni Boldini are all decent horses capable of winning. But among them only Giovanni Boldini seems to have the change of pace that this tight course and full field might require. I think Outstrip is the best of the invaders but he takes so long to get going his rider will have to be going full out as they head into the turn. Giovanni Boldini has a better cruising speed and pickup and shouldn't have to be as far back as Wilshire Boulevard. He certainly has a good chance.
Bashart
Bobby's Kitten
Giovanni Boldini
Dirt Mile
In it's short history this race has developed into a tricky one and I think this year may be set to follow the atypical mold. Four grade 1 winners are stuck in the outside posts and with about 6 yards to the first turn it could be bad news for those horses. It's an interesting quandary because those are 4 horses that you would think the public would like to support. Like many people I'm looking away from Verrazano and Goldencents for my primary selections. I think that Tapwone might be in a good spot tactically as he will likely establish his position on the fence right from the gate. Broadway Empire and Fed Biz may challenge him a bit but they likely won't want to force too fast a pace. I do think that everyone will have a vested interest in seeing Verrazano and Goldencents floated with early on so perhaps those two fight make the pace faster than it needs to be but honestly I think this race will be a little cagey. Most of the real talent comes from off the pace and if the pace doesn't setup it could leave this race wide open to some lesser lights. We've seen it happen before. Getting back to Taptowne I think that he is a bit better than he seems. He's been on a consistent run of form and is working lights out at present. One I like for a minor place is Holy Lute. With so many others worried about their post he seems to be well situated to work out a good trip. He is improving with every start and I think he learned a bit last time. Smith is a big upgrade in the saddle. I'm tossing Goldencents on at the bottom here because I think he is in great form and despite the post he's going to put in a good try and he is far more talented than my top 2.
Taptowne
Holy Lute
Goldencents
Juvenile Fillies Turf
This is the first race of the weekend where I really love my play. I think Al Thakhira has a super chance. In her two races she has shown a turn of foot that is absolutely top class. You never quite know how a European will handle the local conditions but this filly is very handy and has excellent acceleration. Her trainer is a savvy shipper and her connections already spend some good money acquiring her after her debut. I think we're going to see something special from her. The other Europeans are okay but I would say no more than evenly matched with the rest of this group. My Conquestadory seems like a special filly in her own right. It's pretty amazing to win a race like the Summer in her first start. The post isn't great but with her running style I doubt it'll be a factor. I just think that traffic may be a factor for her. Woodbine and Keeneland's main seem a bit more spacious than the SA Turf. It's hard to ignore the job that Chad Brown does with 2yo's on the lawn and I think Testa Rossi is the best of the group he is bringing for this race.
Al Thakhira
My Conquestadory
Testa Rossi
Distaff
I'm really looking forward to this showdown. Honestly 4 of the 6 horses I see as legitimate win candidates. Close Hatches is a bit shy of the class I think it'll take to win this race and Street Girl honestly would be the most shocking winner of the entire BC if she pulled this off. I think this is the kind of race where you just have to pick one and enjoy the tussle. I'd like to be in Royal Delta's corner. I think she can bully Beholder off the lead and outfinish Authenticity. I actually wonder if Princess of Sylmar will regress here. We'll see but I'll be going for Royal Delta.
Royal Delta
Beholder
Authenticity
FRIDAY:
6th - Marathon
Commander
Cease
No one else made my sheet.
7th - JV (T)
Outstrip gets the nod if only because of having a somewhat more impressive campaign so far. Bobby's Kitten is a sort that could blossom but may not quite be there yet. Bashart next, though frankly I haven't been all that impressed to this point.
8th - Mile
Bru Jo De Olleros, if only because I'm not terribly impressed by the rest. Will probably go off over the ML and could be a good gimmick play. If you think Goldecents can stay for a share he's a must use, and if you think Hymn Book can close likewise.
Good luck with that.
9th - Juv F (T)
Ready To Act got my class number, and though this is a fairly decent field I'll use her on top. Something like 11 - (2, 4, 10, 14) and half back over.
10th - Distaff
Unless you have some compelling REASON to believe Royal Delta will have one of her occasional off days tomorrow how can you bet against her?
OTOH, 4 of the other 5 COULD win this.
RD wins, I suppose, but exactly how to bet if at all remains a mystery as for now.
Marathon
Ever Rider
Juvenile Turf
Bobby's Kitten
Dirt Mile
Goldencents
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Clenor
Distaff
Princess Of Sylmar
Arabian Stakes
So Big Is Better
I don't know what anyone else may think about the Mile, but I really like No Jet Lag and Silentio. Perhaps Obviously is tailing off somewhat from his good form of earlier in the year.
Now that this crazy week is almost over, I may actually be able to look at the PPs for a nanosecond tonight. Sheesh! :headshake:
Quote from: Zenyatta on October 31, 2013, 08:54:09 PM
I don't know what anyone else may think about the Mile, but I really like No Jet Lag and Silentio. Perhaps Obviously is tailing off somewhat from his good form of earlier in the year.
Now that this crazy week is almost over, I may actually be able to look at the PPs for a nanosecond tonight. Sheesh! :headshake:
Oh ... I love No Jet Lag ... He, along with He Be Fire N Ice, is my pick in that race.
Marathon:
Old Time Hockey/Suns Out Guns Out
BC Juvenile Turf picks:
Bashart/Giovanni Boldini/Outstrip
Dirt Mile:
I would love Hymn Book to win this but my picks are Verrazano/Goldencents/Hymn Book.
Alpha! But then I'm 0 for 2 so wtf do I know? :lmao:
Goldencents ran them off their feet. Unfortunately, Centralintelligence was injured and was walking to the ambulance. It looked like a jockey stood coming into the stretch, was probably CI, I couldn't tell.
I would not have been surprised if there had been some sort of inquiry, because it looked like someone cut in front of Central' going into the backstretch. He had to take up sharply, and perhaps he clipped heels?
No inquiry but damn Goldencents smoked em! WOW!
Anything on Centralintelligence? :(
Okay have to get one right eventually - Kitten Kaboodle
I want Vorda to win because she is a descendant of Lure, 20 years ago, 1993 Mile at Santa Anita, just seems like it should be written in the stars. :)
But I could see Al Thakhira, Kitten Kaboodle(though since Ramsey acts like a 5yo, I don't want this one to win), Vorda, Cleanor, or My Conquestadory.
Heard on NBCSN, word from Dr. Bramlage is that Centralintelligence had to be taken off the track in the horse ambulance with swelling in the right front knee. He's being taken back to Ron Ellis' barn for exam. I wonder if he got kicked by the horse that pulled in front of him on the backstretch, because he backed up sharply then.
Quote from: BaroqueAgain1 on November 01, 2013, 03:33:39 PM
Heard on NBCSN, word from Dr. Bramlage is that Centralintelligence had to be taken off the track in the horse ambulance with swelling in the right front knee. He's being taken back to Ron Ellis' barn for exam. I wonder if he got kicked by the horse that pulled in front of him on the backstretch, because he backed up sharply then.
Looked to me like he was checked badly and then dropped back quickly. Love this guy, so any news would be appreciated...
Ken Ramsey does act like a five year old - "he's never riding Bobby's Kitten again!" Geez - THINK it if you want but don't blurt it out to the Press. :headshake:
Quote from: Lakeway on November 01, 2013, 03:50:24 PM
Quote from: BaroqueAgain1 on November 01, 2013, 03:33:39 PM
Heard on NBCSN, word from Dr. Bramlage is that Centralintelligence had to be taken off the track in the horse ambulance with swelling in the right front knee. He's being taken back to Ron Ellis' barn for exam. I wonder if he got kicked by the horse that pulled in front of him on the backstretch, because he backed up sharply then.
Looked to me like he was checked badly and then dropped back quickly. Love this guy, so any news would be appreciated...
Condylar fracture
The Distaff is so hard for me to pick. My head tells me Beholder will win. But my heart wants 3/4 of the field. ;)
Even with the speed bias, I'm going with Princess.
The Distaff was kinda sad. I bet that's the last we see of Royal Delta and that's too bad. She is such a great mare and I wanted to see her win 3 in a row like Goldikova.
I was betting on the Princess too - the stumble out of the gate was bad but still - dead last? Wow, I'm devastated. :(
Ecstatic about Goldencents and Beholder. My Derby horse wins the Dirt Mile. Gotta love it.
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 01, 2013, 05:01:27 PM
Ecstatic about Goldencents and Beholder. My Derby horse wins the Dirt Mile. Gotta love it.
Then I'll be happy for you! :happy:
I think we'll see the Princess next year, and she should do fine...as long as she avoids Santa Anita. ;)
Royal Delta deserves a happy retirement...and I think she made it clear today (and probably also in the Beldame) that she's not very interested in this whole running-around-in-a-circle-like-your-tail's-on-fire anymore.
Quote from: BaroqueAgain1 on November 01, 2013, 05:48:47 PM
I think we'll see the Princess next year, and she should do fine...as long as she avoids Santa Anita. ;)
Royal Delta deserves a happy retirement...and I think she made it clear today (and probably also in the Beldame) that she's not very interested in this whole running-around-in-a-circle-like-your-tail's-on-fire anymore.
I quite agree! :) Will miss Royal Delta though - what an absolute star! Happy retirement to her tho - I'm assuming thats what they will do.
Twas an unusually good day for me today!
3 winners ...
Better Bet at 47-1
London Bridge at 9-1 :chickendance:
So Big Is Better at 11-1
Hope tomorrow is even remotely similar!
I watched the HRTV show "Against the Odds" where the 2 hosts, one Brad Free, picked the BC horses today. They skunked. Neither picked a single one.
I mean, even *I* picked a couple of them. And for Free to pick a frontrunner in the Juv Fillies Turf was silly. Someone quoted a stat last weekend on HRTV where not one frontrunner had one on that turf course all season. Why would anyone pick against a ridiculous bias like that? I didn't believe it when I heard it but given what I've seen during this meet, it wouldn't surprise me if that was the case. And we saw it today too.
The disappointment of the day was My Conquestadory finishing out of the money.
I stunk up today except for Testa Rossi and Beholder. Maybe I can do better tomorrow.
Juvenile Fillies: Sweet Reason, She's a Tiger and Untapable
F&M Turf: Laughing and Marketing Mix
F&M Sprint: Sweet Lulu
Turf Sprint: Mizdirection and Caracortado
Juvenile: Havana
Turf: The Fugue, Little Mike, Point of Entry
Sprint: Justin Phillip and Secret Circle
Mile: Wise Dan
Classic: Palace Malice, Game On Dude, Paynter
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 01, 2013, 06:34:46 PM
I watched the HRTV show "Against the Odds" where the 2 hosts, one Brad Free, picked the BC horses today. They skunked. Neither picked a single one.
I mean, even *I* picked a couple of them. And for Free to pick a frontrunner in the Juv Fillies Turf was silly. Someone quoted a state last weekend on HRTV where not one frontrunner had one on that turf course all season. Why would anyone pick against a ridiculous bias like that? I didn't believe it when I heard it but given what I've seen during this meet, it wouldn't surprise me if that was the case. And we saw it today too.
The disappointment of the day was My Conquestadory finishing out of the money.
Take some solace that its not like the horse got smoked ... 4th in a BC race isn't too shabby! :)
As far as Free? No surprise ... they usually don't pick any better than the common man.
Quote from: Flintknapper on November 01, 2013, 06:41:17 PM
I stunk up today except for Testa Rossi and Beholder. Maybe I can do better tomorrow.
Juvenile Fillies: Sweet Reason, She's a Tiger and Untapable
F&M Turf: Laughing and Marketing Mix
F&M Sprint: Sweet Lulu
Turf Sprint: Mizdirection and Caracortado
Juvenile: Havana
Turf: The Fugue, Little Mike, Point of Entry
Sprint: Justin Phillip and Secret Circle
Mile: Wise Dan
Classic: Palace Malice, Game On Dude, Paynter
I had Tests Rossi too ... but unfortunately just to win and in exacts with Clenor ... no dinero for that.
I'm ALL OVER No Jet Lag and He Be Fire N Ice tomorrow!
They're the 2 I've had my eye on out of the whole event. If they're double figure odds, I'm on them!
You guys didn't stink it up as bad as I did! :lmao: I was SO totally hopeless today that I think I'll throw out all my picks for tomorrow and just throw darts. Has to be a better percentage in that! :lmao:
As for Royal Delta and Princess of Sylmar's "flops" today, any moment now, we will likely get the obligatory "she didn't handle the track" excuse from their trainers.
Some times, even really good horses just don't have it. Why must there always be an "excuse" from the connections.
Quote from: Flanders on November 01, 2013, 04:10:14 PM
The Distaff is so hard for me to pick. My head tells me Beholder will win. But my heart wants 3/4 of the field. ;)
Nice pick.
Hope you supported your view at the betting windows with enthusiasm :rhrse:
Juvenile Fillies
#1 Artemis Agrotera- 2 turns the question, but has early speed, and has reportedly looked great in the mornings training for this.
#7 Untapable- 2 turn win at G2 level, needs slight improvement, hopefully can get a nice stalking trip
#8 Scandalous Act- the longshot choice. Distance no problem, and is coming off the deeper CRC course. Class level the main question.
(will still use Sweet Reason in here, but she is not among my top 3 considering the likely price and her late running style)
FM Turf
#2 Romantica- loving that overseas firm turf form. Class level is there, distance is ideal.
#6 Marketing Mix- solid, honest mare should put in a good run
#7 Laughing- may get an ideal pace setup- the distance is her absolute limit
(also like Dank and Tiz Flirtatious- not quite sure how I am going to bet this one yet)
FM Sprint
#12 Sweet Lulu- love her on the cutback and may get a pace advantage from the 12-hole
#7 Summer Applause- another running on the cutback. Has won at the distance; possibly better on synth, but worth a chance imo.
#11 Groupie Doll- not in the same form as last year, but still probably the one to beat
(I like Book Review, but her ceiling is pretty clear & she will have to fire against a possible speed bias. Dance To Bristol may be over the top, but can't ignore her completely. Groupie Doll will likely get hammered- I think this is pretty wide open this year actually)
Turf Sprint
#6 Boat Trip- solid off good 2nd in Eddie D
#7 Tightend Touchdown- longshot could surprise
#12 Mizdirection- reigning queen comes of a shorter layoff than last year. Impeccable record on the course.
(The most wide open race on the card imo. I also like Unbridleds Note, Chips All In, and Spring to the Sky at a price)
Juvenile
#12 Diamond Bachelor- price should be decent and he has won stakes around 2 turns. He's got early speed; can't see why he wouldn't run on dirt
#13 Havana- good horse, bad price
#11 Medal Count- picks up the pieces?
(aside from 2003 this is one of the weaker renditions of this race in recent memory, though my memory is probably selective. May also use Mexikoma and Smartys Echo).
Turf
#7 The Fugue- should be the clear choice
#4 Little Mike- if they let him go early watch out. He seems to be over the Dubai debacle.
#8 Point of Entry- layoff is the question
(Big Blue Kitten and Indy Point are the others to consider imo)
Sprint
#7 Private Zone- speed of the speed?
#3 Gentlemens Bet- like the synth- dirt angle and he's been training very well for this
#6 Bahamian Squall- can't put my finger on it, but a mouse says to use this one. He seems to hang around at the end of most races
(Secret Circle is interesting coming off one prep, but could be good enough. Justin Philip is a more obvious alternative, but not sure I trust him at this track)
Mile
#8 Wise Dan- reigning HOY is still the best on paper.
#1 No Jet Lag- he and 'Ice both have nice closing kicks. Not the strongest contingent of Euros shipped for this. Could be a rare NA sweep.
#7 He Be Fire n Ice
(also consider Obviously if he bounces back and Silentio is a fairly consistent type under the conditions)
Classic
#9 Game On Dude- he either wins or is nowhere (most likely). If he runs his race all others are running for second
#5 Declaration of War- I actually think this horse has a huge chance if he handles the dirt.
#8 Palace Malice- the best of the 3yos, can stalk if he breaks well. Should be there at the end
(this is a tough race to handicap imo this year- I also plan on using Mucho Macho Man and Fort Larned)
Same as posted at TBC today:
Hope my picks do better today than yesterday!
If Wise Dan wins his race, then I'm happy ... regardless!
Going with Mucho Macho Man for the Classic win ... Game On Dude second ... Palace Malice third ... Fort Larned fourth.
Anxious to see Declaration of War try for one of the above. A very safe trip for all.
Post parade underway for Juvrnile Fillies. Good betting race so far, favorites at 7/2 right now.
In the meantime, unfortunately, Caracortado was scratched.
Come from behinders are comingbin at longer odds because of speed bias.
At 15/1, Scandalous Act sure looks good. She and #10 and #1 will be the speed.
The head says these 3, the heart says Sweet Reason, for no other reason than wanting Alex Solis to win a BC race.
Secret Compass was euthanized. Though you wouldn't know anything happened to her because Denman is a terrible announcer.
Quote from: Flanders on November 02, 2013, 12:26:52 PM
Secret Compass was euthanized. Though you wouldn't know anything happened to her because Denman is a terrible announcer.
How terrible! At least NBCSN decided to say something about it after that stupid football preview was over. Anyone think Johnny V will be back in the saddle later today?
Ugh, what a start to the day. She's a Tiger DQ'd as well as a horse broken down and a top jock off for the rest of his rides. Then such a terrible ride on Laughing, a PACE horse. Please get better after this, day.
Quote from: Flintknapper on November 02, 2013, 12:58:41 PM
Ugh, what a start to the day. She's a Tiger DQ'd as well as a horse broken down and a top jock off for the rest of his rides. Then such a terrible ride on Laughing, a PACE horse. Please get better after this, day.
Crappy ride on Tiz Flirtatious too. Hmmm.... Book Review, Sweet Lulu and Teddy in this one.
I am really glad I didn't wager on those 3, and am ashamed at jumping off the Groupie Doll bandwagon.
Poor Secret Compass and hope Johhny V is ok.
Secret Compass is owned by Westrock Stables, an HRTV sponsor and the main sponsor of First Call, the weekend morning program televised from Clockers' Corner.
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 01:33:19 PM
I am really glad I didn't wager on those 3, and am ashamed at jumping off the Groupie Doll bandwagon.
You should be ashamed for turning your back on our beloved champion Groupie Doll, Ms. Drone Bee! :flaming:
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 01:33:19 PM
I am really glad I didn't wager on those 3, and am ashamed at jumping off the Groupie Doll bandwagon.
Me too. :( Although Judy The Beauty did get second!
I've always liked Chips All In, but wouldn't be surprised if Mizdirection did it again.
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 01:57:50 PM
I've always liked Chips All In, but wouldn't be surprised if Mizdirection did it again.
And she did it again! The results were similar to last year's, except Reneesgotzip was in a DH for 2nd with a very game Tightend Touchdown.
Will Tske Charge sure looked good in the post parade.
Oh and Kristin Chenoweth's rendition of "The Best Is Yet To Come" was godawful. She was off key throughout and the final note probably scared the horses off in the post parade.
Quote from: Zenyatta on November 02, 2013, 05:42:59 PM
Will Tske Charge sure looked good in the post parade.
Oh and Kristin Chenoweth's rendition of "The Best Is Yet To Come" was godawful. She was off key throughout and the final note probably scared the horses off in the post parade.
What happened to Tony Bennett; thought he had the honors this year? Toni Braxton (sp ?) sang off key, too! Geesh! That hurt my ears!
How 'bout that Wise Dan? Yahoo! Best part of the day for me! Love that big beautiful chestnut gelding! :girlkiss:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/81813/wise-dan-rolls-again-in-breeders-cup-mile
We had 3 repeat winners. I don't think that's ever been done before.
Congrats to the connections of Groupie Doll, Mizdirection and of course Wise Dan.
Two horses that I picked to finish 1st won...Much Macho Man and Groupie Doll
Others that I picked to finish in the money won though...
Classic
Mucho Macho Man (1)
Distaff
Close Hatches (2)
Filly & Mare Turf
Dank (1) picked to place.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Groupie Doll (1)
Mile
Wise Dan (1) picked to place.
Turf
The Fugue (2) picked to win.
BC Sprint
Secret Circle (1) picked to place.
BC Dirt Mile
Goldencents (1) picked to place.
BC Juvenile
Havana (2) picked to win.
BC Juvenile Fillies
Rosalind (3) picked to show.
BC Juvenile Turf
Bobby's Kitten (2) picked to win.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Nothing.
BC Marathon
Blueskiesnrainbows (2) picked to win.
See your picks show their stuff ... thanks to Blood-Horse's BC Classic race sequence:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/features/2013/race-sequence/breeders-cup-classic/
Always enjoy seeing them 'in action' in a sequence.