Man o' Taz's Early 2017 Derby Dozen

[stark]

It just may be the year to throw a filly into the mix, and UNIQUE BELLA could be just the one, keep an eye on the Santa Isabel next Saturday at SantaAnita.

Not only do I think she'd be Derby trifecta material, but I think this could be an "owner angle play" to get her into the starting gate.
The Don Alberto Racing stable has thrown a $mall fortune into American racing in the past few years and their dream is to win the Derby!

[Man o Taz]

Didn't Jerry Hollendorfer indicate that there were absolutely no plans to run her against the boys this year already?

I thought I had read a quote from him somewhere.

At least last year he seemed to leave the possibility open, but the notion that he has been clear on the proposition, and he is not only going to reverse himself, but also enter her in a Derby prep which he did not even do with the more tested Songbird, to me is a bit over the top, but we shall see.

[stark]

Didn't Jerry Hollendorfer indicate that there were absolutely no plans to run her against the boys this year already?

I thought I had read a quote from him somewhere.

At least last year he seemed to leave the possibility open, but the notion that he has been clear on the proposition, and he is not only going to reverse himself, but also enter her in a Derby prep which he did not even do with the more tested Songbird, to me is a bit over the top, but we shall see.

Pretty sure that in both cases it's the owners decision that really counts, it just so happens that JH agreed with the decision to keep Songbird in her element, but UB has been nominated to the triple crown so they've  at least opened the door a crack.

[stark]

Pretty sure that in both cases it's the owners decision that really counts, it just so happens that JH agreed with the decision to keep Songbird in her element, but UB has been nominated to the triple crown so they've  at least opened the door a crack.

Let's take a look at the owners of Unique Bella to bolster my case for inclusion in anybody's top ten list in February.

First off, they spent $400,000 for her at the Keeneland September sale, maybe not a lot for a Tapit but plenty enough for anybody to spend.

Next, let's take a look at the American history of this stable dating back four years that makes that expenditure look even bigger.
2017   9   3   0   1   $283,006   View
2016   56   9   5   8   $622,828   View
2015   15   1   2   1   $141,560   View
2014   1   0   0   0   $60,000   View

Next, a couple of articles following up Don Alberto's purchase of the Kentucky Vinery farm and spending millions at auctions.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/117407/don-alberto-adding-horses-for-new-ky-farm
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/don-alberto-farm-one-year-later-shared-archive/

In summary, it's my job to read between the lines and I see an outfit that's hungry for success pointing for America's biggest races.  If not with Unique Bella, they're going to do it with one of their other purchases, that much I'm confident in.  As for press coverage.....it appears that they require an interpreter so the coverage/exposure may be very limited at this time.

If anybody knows anything more/different about them, please share before I take the rubber band off again, thanks.

[Man o Taz]

I would refer you to the following:
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/early-say-whether-unique-bella-will-contest-kentucky-derby/

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, in a similar position last year with the then-undefeated Songbird, made a show of declining any interest in running Unique Bella against males.

Another factor which may increase Hollendorfer's reticence to start Unique Bella against males is that Songbird was far more experienced in early February of her sophomore year than is Unique Bella. Songbird had raced four times as a juvenile before debuting the next year with a win in the Las Virgenes; Unique Bella made only two starts as a 2-year-old, and her two graded stakes wins have come in the first two months of 2017.

"I'd like to keep (Unique Bella) in California, just like I did with Songbird last year," said Hollendorfer after Unique Bella's win. "There's enough money to run out here and run against the girls, not the boys. I think we'll try and run here and if we'd be fortunate enough, we'd point to the (Kentucky) Oaks.
"I really like to concentrate on the filly races. If an opportunity came to do something else we'd probably have to consider that, but I'd like to keep her against the fillies if I can."

I know Don Alberto has raced his horses against the males in Chile, but you do not get Jerry Hollendorfer as your trainer unless you are willing to listen to his recommendations.

I doubt if Fernando Diaz-Valdes and Don Alberto go against Hollendorfer's recommendation.

I think what will cement it is the next round of races by the three year old males.

Once Mastery, American Anthem, Irish War Cry, Classic Enpire, El Areeb and McCraken make their next start's I think any chance of Unique Bella facing the boys in the Kentucky Derby will have evaporated.

That said, nothing stops you from posting your Derby top 10 or 12...

[stark]

That said, nothing stops you from posting your Derby top 10 or 12...

I don't have enough money to bet 10 or 12 horses and I'm strictly into it for the reason of placing a wager.
While I recognize the 8/5 being offered on Unique Bella to win the Oaks is beyond ridiculous, there may be some attractive prices out there for the Derby worth looking into.

[Man o Taz]

Even in placing a wager, I am certain you divide the field into top Derby prospects to win...and provide some underlays for the super...considering 8-10 horses...but only betting on 6-7? No?

You have to have at least 8-10 horses you are watching.

No? LOL

Funny thing is, I usually go for peculiar Derby entries like females and foreign entries, except if they are trained by Jerry Hollendorfer because he is not a fan at all about entering them against the boys.

Now, if Unique Bella delivered a Rachel Alexandra type performance against the fillies in the Kentucky Oaks, I could definitely see the possibility of her entering the Preakness Stakes or Belmont Stakes, but the Derby I think is a no go.

I just hope, unlike Songbird last year, UB remains healthy to enter the Oaks.

And if she stays healthy she could really have a special season perhaps taking on the boys in the Haskell as was talked about for Songbird possibly before her scratch in the Oaks.

[Man o Taz]

Well, this is a weird year. Horses very inconsistent except for Gunnevera who I just do not see as the quality as some of the others.

1. Irish War Cry (Curlin by Smart Strike and Irish Sovereign by Polish Numbers by Danzig) 10
Next Race: Sam F. Davis?
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Marylander Stakes, 7 furlongs

I toss out the FOY. He bounced off the big performance in the Holy Bull. I expect him to rebound with a big performance next out.

2. McCraken (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer and Ivory Empress by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)  10
Next Race: Blue Grass Stakes, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Sam F. Davis, 8 furlongs
Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 10 
Street Sense, 8 furlongs

I think he is still a top Derby horse. Right now, a notch above Classic Empire, but they are very close.

3. Classic Empire (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker and Sambuca Classic by Cat Thief by Storm Cat) 32
Next Race: Blue Grass Stakes, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Mark Casse
G3 Bashford Manor,  6 furlongs
G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs 10
BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 20
3rd G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs2

4. Gunnevera (Dialed In by Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Unbirdled Rage by Unbridled) 64
Next Race: Fountain of Youth
Trainer: Anthony Sano
G3 Delta Jackpot Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10
2nd G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs 4
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs 50

Fountain of Youth win was impressive, but I just do not see him in the same league as other top horses.

5.  One Liner (Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday and Cayala by Cherokee Run by Runaway Groom by Blushing Groom back eventually to Nasrullah) 10
Next Race: G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10

I am liking this horse more and more.

6. Malagacy (Shackleford by Forestry by Strom Cat and Classiest Gem by Dehere by Deputy Minister) 50
Next race: Arkansas Derby?, 9 furlongs
Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 50

This horse is really interesting. A nice win against a quality field. Pletcher with his third Derby prospect. Picking them up late.

7. Practical Joke (Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday and by Halo Humor by Distorted Humor) 34
Next Race: Holy Bull , 8.5 furlongs or Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs?
Trainer: Chad Brown
G1 Hopeful, 7 furlongs
G1 Champagne, 8 furlongs 10
3rd BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 4
2nd Fountain of Youth, 20

7. J. Boys Echo (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Letgomyecho by Menifee by Harlan by Storm Cat) 53
Next Race: Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Dale Romans
4th Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs 1
3rd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 2
Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 50

8. Mo Town ( Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Grazi Mille by Bernardini by A.P. Indy) 10
Next Race: Florida Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Anthony Dutrow
8th G2 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
G2 Remsen Stakes , 9 furlongs

Wood probably a better place for him, but it looks like they are pointing to the Florida Derby and the G1 lure.

9. El Areeb (Exchange Rate by Danzig and Feathered by A.P. Indy)  30
Next Race: Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs.
Trainer: Cathal Lynch
James F. Lewis Stakes, 7 furlongs
Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs 10
Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10
3rd Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10

Can he rebound?

10. Gormley (Malibu Moon by A.P. Indy and Race To Urca by Bernstein by Storm Cat) 28 
Next Race:
Trainer: John Shirreffs
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10
G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs 10
4th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs 4

11. Royal Mo (Uncle Mo and Royal Irish Lass by Saint Ballado by by Halo by Hail To Reason) 10
Next race: Sunland Derby?
Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs  10
8th Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

I really like this horse a lot, and wonder what happened. Cal shippers usually do better.

12. American Anthem (Bodemeister by Empire Maker and Indy's Windy by A.P. Indy)4
Next Race: Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs
2nd Sham Stakes
10th Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs.

[peeptoad]

I really like this horse a lot, and wonder what happened. Cal shippers usually do better.

12. American Anthem (Bodemeister by Empire Maker and Indy's Windy by A.P. Indy)4
Next Race: Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd Sham Stakes
10th Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs.

I liked him too and tend to agree. This year seems the most wide open since maybe 2011 though. I'm willing to take a wait and see approach with several horses, but the Rebel looked weak to me. Not sure the Derby winner was in that field. We'll see.
I'm still waiting on Cloud Computing and I actually like the Japanese horse a bit.

[Man o Taz]

I do wonder what they do with Royal Mo and Gormley.

Gormley I could see being pointed to the Santa Anita Derby, but I cannot see them both going in there.

[stark]

I do wonder what they do with Royal Mo and Gormley.

Gormley I could see being pointed to the Santa Anita Derby, but I cannot see them both going in there.

Sometimes you have to handicap the trainer more than the horse and I can see Sherriff saying "let's back off and regroup for later in the year"

[Man o Taz]

Excellent point.

[ElPrado]

Well, El Areeb managed to get a knee chip, so he's out of the picture now.

[Man o Taz]

1. McCraken (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer and Ivory Empress by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)  30
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
3rd Blue Grass Stakes, 9 furlongs
Sam F. Davis, 8 furlongs
Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 10 
Street Sense, 8 furlongs

I know he finished 3rd, but he needed the race. I think unless Classic Empire wins the Arkansas Derby very impressively, he is my top Derby horse.

2. Irish War Cry (Curlin by Smart Strike and Irish Sovereign by Polish Numbers by Danzig) 110
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Marylander Stakes, 7 furlongs
Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs
8th Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs
Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs

I toss out the FOY. He bounced off the big performance in the Holy Bull. I expected a big performance next out and I got it.

3. Classic Empire (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker and Sambuca Classic by Cat Thief by Storm Cat) 32
Next Race: Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Mark Casse
G3 Bashford Manor,  6 furlongs
G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs 10
BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 20
3rd G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs2

We shall see how much he has recovered temperament, etc. If he finishes a close 2nd he stays here.

4. Gormley (Malibu Moon by A.P. Indy and Race To Urca by Bernstein by Storm Cat) 128
Next Race:
Trainer: John Shirreffs
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10
G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs 10
4th G2 San Felipe, 8.5 furlongs 4

5. Always Dreaming (Bodemeister by Empire Maker and In Excess by Siberian Express) 100
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Florida Derby, 9 furlongs

6. Gunnevera (Dialed In by Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Unbirdled Rage by Unbridled) 84
Next Race: Fountain of Youth
Trainer: Anthony Sano
G3 Delta Jackpot Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10
2nd G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs 4
G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5 furlongs 50
3rd Florida Derby, 9 furlongs

He bounced.

6. Malagacy (Shackleford by Forestry by Strom Cat and Classiest Gem by Dehere by Deputy Minister) 50
Next race: Arkansas Derby?, 9 furlongs
Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 50

Not as good as Always Dreaming, but still a gamer/

7. Practical Joke (Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday and by Halo Humor by Distorted Humor) 74
Trainer: Chad Brown
G1 Hopeful, 7 furlongs
G1 Champagne, 8 furlongs 10
3rd BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 4
2nd Fountain of Youth, 20
2nd Blue Grass Stakes, 9 furlongs 40

8. J. Boys Echo (Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Letgomyecho by Menifee by Harlan by Storm Cat) 53
Next Race: 4th Bluegrass Stakes, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Dale Romans
4th Delta Downs Jackpot, 8.5 furlongs 1
3rd G3 Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 2
Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 50

9. Royal Mo (Uncle Mo and Royal Irish Lass by Saint Ballado by by Halo by Hail To Reason) 10
Next race: Sunland Derby?
Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs  10
8th Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
3rd Santa Anita Derby, 9 furlongs

[peeptoad]

I don't think Royal Mo will make the field unless he runs in the Lexington next week. He's already short on points per the likely cutoff.
That said, he prob ran a better race than Gormley finishing 3rd in the SA Derby. He was wide, contested hot pace and the jock lost the whip in the stretch. Same could be said about Battle of Midway, who also might get bumped from the field unless he runs back this weekend or next, except that he didn't have to go wide like Mo did.