Man o' Taz's Early 2017 Derby Dozen

Started by Man o Taz, November 17, 2016, 11:27:19 AM

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Man o Taz

This may be earlier than I have ever done this...

1. Classic Empire (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Marker and Sambuca Classic by Cat Thief by Storm Cat) 30
Next Race:
G3 Bashford Manor,  6 furlongs
G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs 10
BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 20

2. Not This Time (Giant's Causeway by Storm Cat and Miss Macy by Trippi by End Sweep by Forty Niner) 18
Next Race:
G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs 10
2nd G1 BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 8

3. Gormley (Malibu Moon by A.P. Indy and Race To Urca by Bernstein by Storm Cat) 10 
Next Race:
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10

4. Practical Joke (Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday and by Halo Humor by Distorted Humor) 14
Next Race:
G1 Hopeful, 7 furlongs
G1 Champagne, 8 furlongs 10
3rd BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 4

5. Mastery (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano and Steady Course by Old Trieste by A.P, Indy)
Entered G3 Bob Hope Stakes, 7 furlongs

6. McCracken (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister and Ivory Empress by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)
Next Race: Kentucky Jockey Club
Street Sense, 8 furlongs

Whoa. Just woke up to find out that Churchill Downs has eliminated points for the Hopeful and Del Mar Futurity?
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

peeptoad

Quote from: Man o Taz on November 17, 2016, 11:27:19 AM
Whoa. Just woke up to find out that Churchill Downs has eliminated points for the Hopeful and Del Mar Futurity?

They also raised tickets prices again for the Derby and Oaks, pretty much ensuring that I never see either of them live at CD in my lifetime

stark

DEL MAR, Calif. – There's no hiding trainer Bob Baffert's enthusiasm when it comes to Mastery, who is one of his most-promising 2-year-olds. Mastery won first time out at Santa Anita, and his main goal before year's end is the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity next month at Los Alamitos.

Jock switch from Bejarano to BigMoneyMikeSmith.

peeptoad

I didn't realize the other Baffert Beach Bum is a half to Cat's Claw. That's enough for me from a fan stance.  :thumbsup:

Diver52

Oddly enough, Baffert also trained a 1997 version of Beach Bum, a Dixieland Heat colt who won 3 of 4 and showed some talent before disappearing.  (He did apparently sire four foals, so he didn't disappear as in "dead.")

Mastery runs Saturday in the Bob Hope at Del Mar.

Man o Taz

And he wins nicely pretty much wrapped up. Nice colt.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

#6
Well, too bad about Not This Time...

1. Classic Empire (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Marker and Sambuca Classic by Cat Thief by Storm Cat) 30
Next Race:
G3 Bashford Manor,  6 furlongs
G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs 10
BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 20

2. Not This Time (Giant's Causeway by Storm Cat and Miss Macy by Trippi by End Sweep by Forty Niner) 18
Next Race:
G3 Iroquois, 8.5 furlongs 10
2nd G1 BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 8

2. Gormley (Malibu Moon by A.P. Indy and Race To Urca by Bernstein by Storm Cat) 10 
Next Race:
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10

3. Practical Joke (Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday and by Halo Humor by Distorted Humor) 14
Next Race:
G1 Hopeful, 7 furlongs
G1 Champagne, 8 furlongs 10
3rd BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 4

4. Mastery (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano and Steady Course by Old Trieste by A.P, Indy)
Next Race: G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs
G3 Bob Hope Stakes, 7 furlongs

5. McCraken (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister and Ivory Empress by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector) 10
Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs
Street Sense, 8 furlongs

6. Lancaster Bomber (War Front by Danzig and Sun Shower by Indian Ridge)
Next Race:
2nd G1 Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
3rd G1 Dewhurst Stakes, 7 furlongs 
I know he's a turf horse...but I really liked Air Force Blue for the Derby last year. Maybe he can be the Master of Hounds of 2017.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

stark

RUNNING MATE?
Opened up at 50-1 in the future book, currently about 35-1, two romps so far lacking in competition for Larry Jones.

peeptoad

Some NY Saturday recap, incl. preliminary plans for potential Derby horses:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/218006/connect-in-good-order-off-cigar-mile-win

Man o Taz

#9
This may be earlier than I have ever done this...

1. Classic Empire (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker and Sambuca Classic by Cat Thief by Storm Cat) 30
Next Race: Holy Bull Stake, 8.5 furlongss/Fountain of Youth Stakes 8.5 furlongs ?
Trainer: Mark Casse
G3 Bashford Manor,  6 furlongs
G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs 10
BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 20

Can Classic Empire make it 3 great grandsons of Storm Cat t have won the Kentucky Derby in a row?

2. Mo Town ( Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Grazi Mille by Bernardini by A.P. Indy) 10
Next Race: Fountain of Youth Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
Trainer: Anthony Dutrow
G2 Remsen Stakes , 9 furlongs

Can the Remsen return as a major force in the Kentucky Derby?
The last horse to place in the race was Bluegrass Cat who finished 2nd in Derby and Belmont Stakes in 2005.
The last horse to win the Derby who won the Remsen Stakes was more than 10 years earlier in Thunder Gulch in 1994. Ironically, he won not only the Kentucky Derby, but the Belmont Stakes.
The year before, 1993, Go For Gin had won the race on the way to winning the Kentucky Derby.
In 1991, Piune Bluff won the race and won the 1992 Preakness Stakes.
The horse before that to win the Derby was in 1980 when Pleasant Colony crossed the wire first, and then the following year took the Derby and Preakness.
Before that it was 1966 when Damascus would win the race en route to a Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes triple the next year.
3 years before that, Northern Dancer had won the race on the way to his Derby/Preakness double.
And the first Derby winner to taste victory in the race was eventual Derby/Preakness winner Carry Back.
The first horse to win the race, Victoria Park, also won the Preakness Stakes.

3. McCraken (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer and Ivory Empress by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)  10
Next Race: Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Iam Wilkes
Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 10 
Street Sense, 8 furlongs

I rank many sons of Ghostzapper high. I think this horse has great breeding top and bottom and seems to have a ton of talent.

4. Mastery (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano and Steady Course by Old Trieste by A.P, Indy) 10
Next Race: Robert Lewis, 8.5 furlongs/Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G3 Bob Hope Stakes, 7 furlongs
G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs 10

Another of my favofite sires. It will be interesting to see if he heads out to Oaklawn for the Rebel, or stays at home for the San Felipe. I do not think he goes in the Robert Lewis and the San Felipe like Dortmund did. Or maybe Beach Bum ships for the Rebel. I would think it would be Mastery since he has more experience and it seems like Baffert sends his top horses East.

5. Gormley (Malibu Moon by A.P. Indy and Race To Urca by Bernstein by Storm Cat) 20 
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: John Shirreffs
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10
G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs 10

Hope he can return to his Frontrunner form. I would think that he is a candidate for the Sham Stakes.

6. Practical Joke (Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday and by Halo Humor by Distorted Humor) 14
Next Race: Holy Bull , 8.5 furlongs or Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs?
Trainer: Chad Brown
G1 Hopeful, 7 furlongs
G1 Champagne, 8 furlongs 10
3rd BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 4

Hope he can return to his Champagne form. I wonder if they try him in the Holy Bull or wait for the Fountain of Youth. Or send him to Aqueduct for a race.

7. Profiteer (War Front by Danzig by Northern Dancer and Hit It Rich by Smart Strike by Mr. Prospector) 
Next race: Allowance or Jerome?
Trainer: Claude McGaughey

One of the closest pedigrees to Northern Dancer on top and Mr. Prospector on the bottom. Wow.

8. Good Samaritan (Harlan's Holliday by Harlan by Storm Cat and Pull Dancer by Pulpit)
Next race:
Trainer: William Mott
3rd BC Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
Summer Stakes, 8 furlongs

Supposed to try dirt. Question is where. Probably Florida.

9. Irish War Cry (Curlin by Smart Strike and Irish Sovereign by Polish Numbers by Danzig)
Next Race: Sam F. Davis?
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Marylander Stakes, 7 furlongs

10. Gunnevera (Dialed In by Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Unbirdled Rage by Unbridled) 10
Next Race: Risen Star?
Trainer: Anthony Sano
G3 Delta Jackpot Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10

11. Cool Arrow (Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday and Phoenicia by Mr. Purpple by Deputy Minister)
Next Race: Lecomte?
Trainer: Joe Sharp
Springboard Mile, 8 furlongs

12. Lookin At Lee (Lookin At Lucky by Smart Strike and Langara Lass by Langfuhr by War Front) 10
Next Race: Lecomte, 8 furlongs/Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs?
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Ellis Park Juvenile, 7 furlongs
2nd Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 4
2nd Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs 4
4th BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 2

On The Edge
No Dozing (Union Rags by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer and Stay Awake by Pulpit by A.P. Indy)
Next Race:
Trainer: Arnaud Delacour

Snap Decision (Hard Spun by Danzig and Salute by Unbridled)
Next Race:
Trainer: Claude McGaughey
Half brother of Mr. Speaker. Have to instantly like.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Dusty

WOW - early is right - and you included Lookin at Lee - me like!
May they run with the wind

Man o Taz

#11
Well, the major two year old races are done and this is how it looks to me.

Lookin At Lee's sire is a favorite of mine so I had to go with him. I also like his trainer. He has been coming closer and has not won in his 3 efforts at 4 furlongs with his last effort against his toughest competition providing his worst finish at 8.5 furlongs, but I am hoping some time off and a growth spurt will help him to be able to contend better.

Well, last year's first list was so-so (I placed what I thought was their best performance(s) after...

1. Greenpointcrusader - 2nd in the Holy Bull
2. Mohaymen - 4th place in the G1 Florida Derby
3.Sunny Ridge - 3rd place in the G1 Haskell Stakes
4. Exaggerator - G1 Preakness Stakes and 2nd in G1 Kentucky Derby
5. Brody's Cause - G1 Bluegrass Stakes
6. Nyquist - G1 Kentucky Derby, G2 Florida Derby
7. Swipe
8. Annual Report
9. Airoforce 2nd in the Penn Mile to Catch A Glimpse
10. Sail Ahoy
11. Air Force Blue
12. Arabian Leopard

So we shall see if I can improve on it... :D
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Man o Taz

Glad to see Irsih War Cry win the Marylander and Gormley rebound in the Sham.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

Dusty

Looking forward to an updated list!
May they run with the wind

Man o Taz


1. Classic Empire (Pioneer of the Nile by Empire Maker and Sambuca Classic by Cat Thief by Storm Cat) 30
Next Race: Bluegrass Stakes/San Felipe?
Trainer: Mark Casse
G3 Bashford Manor,  6 furlongs
G1 Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs 10
BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 20
3rd G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs2

I cannot fault the horse learning he had an abscess. Those who know me know I have a hard time taking a horse down after a less than stellar performance. I think the Bluegrass Stakes would be the best place for him. He loves the track. He would be near Churchill Downs. And he already has 2 G1 wins so missing the G1 Florida Derby would not be much of an issue. You want to place him in the best position to win and that race would do it. Racing at Gulfstream Park does not do that. With all the rain out West, I do not think it makes sense to ship him there just to ship back for the Derby. If he misses again in the Bluegrass finishing 4th or worse by the same margin, then he can simply be vanned to Ashford and retired, but I expect a big performance there that will put him at the top of the pack. To me, he is still the best 3 year old in training. But he cannot afford another misstep. If the abscess does not heal well, then they may as well

2. Irish War Cry (Curlin by Smart Strike and Irish Sovereign by Polish Numbers by Danzig)
Next Race: Sam F. Davis?
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Marylander Stakes, 7 furlongs

3. McCraken (Ghostzapper by Awesome Again by Deputy Minister by Vice Regent by Northern Dancer and Ivory Empress by Seeking the Gold by Mr. Prospector)  10
Next Race: Tampa Bay Derby, 9 furlongs
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Sam F. Davis, 8 furlongs
Kentucky Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs 10 
Street Sense, 8 furlongs

Haskin has him top ranked. A case can certainly be made for that. I need to see him win at more than a mile at 3. I think he will relish the distance, but until he does it against increasingly better competition I cannot list him first. I do really like his trainer, though. And believe he is a top class horse.

4. Mastery (Candy Ride by Ride The Rails by Cryptoclearance by Fappiano and Steady Course by Old Trieste by A.P, Indy) 10
Next Race: San Felipe/Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Bob Baffert
G3 Bob Hope Stakes, 7 furlongs
G1 Cash Call Futurity, 8.5 furlongs 10

I really like him. Winning at 8.5 furlongs at 2 is a big thing for me. This is why he stays and Practical Joke moves down. I thought he beat a nice horse in the Cash Call.

5. Gormley (Malibu Moon by A.P. Indy and Race To Urca by Bernstein by Storm Cat) 20 
Next Race: San Felipe Stakes/Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: John Shirreffs
G1 Frontrunner Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10
G3 Sham Stakes, 8 furlongs 10

Who stays in SoCal? Seems like a classy horse. Overcame poor performance in BC Juvenile. Seems like Shirreff's number one, but who knows.

6. Mo Town ( Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie by In Excess and Grazi Mille by Bernardini by A.P. Indy) 10
Next Race: Risen Star Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Anthony Dutrow
G2 Remsen Stakes , 9 furlongs

He is training well and cannot be held back any further. This is a nice field. I hope he does well. He is the only horse with a 9 furlong win of this crop of three year olds so I see him as the class of the field in the Risen Star.

7. El Areeb (Exchange Rate by Danzig and Feathered by A.P. Indy)  20
Next Race: Gotham Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Cathal Lynch
James F. Lewis Stakes, 7 furlongs
Jerome Handicap, 8 furlongs 10
Withers Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10

Some question his competition which is fair. But he has beaten all comers by open lengths. His breeding cannot be faulted at all.

8. Gunnevera (Dialed In by Mineshaft by A.P. Indy and Unbirdled Rage by Unbridled) 10
Next Race: Fountain of Youth
Trainer: Anthony Sano
G3 Delta Jackpot Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 10
2nd G2 Holy Bull, 8.5 furlongs

I have to move him up. He is just a nice horse. Perhaps not as classy as his competition, but still a nice blue collar horse who always tries.

9. Royal Mo (Uncle Mo and Royal Irish Lass by Saint Ballado by by Halo by Hail To Reason) 10
Next race: Rebel Stakes/Santa Anita Derby?
Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 8.5 furlongs  10

Where does he go next? I wonder if he may point to the Sunland Derby with his Robert Lewis win. It worked for Firing Line to get him to the Derby.

10.  One Liner (Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday and Cayala by Cherokee Run by Runaway Groom by Blushing Groom back eventually to Nasrullah) 10
Next Race: G2 Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs/G1 Florida Derby, 9 furlongs?
Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs

I have no Pletcher horses so I had to add one. I also like the breeding on the bottom. Cherokee Run usually breeds for sprint speed, but did come in second in the Preakness Stakes. He did win at Gulfstream Park so that may be a possibility. Or he could point to the Wood Memorial.

11. American Anthem (Bodemeister by Empire Maker and Indy's Windy by A.P. Indy)4
Next Race: Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs
2nd Sham Stakes

Tie 12. 
Practical Joke (Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday and by Halo Humor by Distorted Humor) 14
Next Race: Holy Bull , 8.5 furlongs or Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs?
Trainer: Chad Brown
G1 Hopeful, 7 furlongs
G1 Champagne, 8 furlongs 10
3rd BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 4

Lookin At Lee (Lookin At Lucky by Smart Strike and Langara Lass by Langfuhr by War Front) 12
Next Race: Rebel Stakes, 8.5 furlongs?
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Ellis Park Juvenile, 7 furlongs
2nd Iroquois Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 4
2nd Breeders Futurity, 8.5 furlongs 4
4th BC Juvenile, 8.5 furlongs 2
3rd Southwest Stakes, 8.5 furlongs 2

He was taken out by Uncontested early so he deserves to stay. Next out he will have to show up. He could just be one of those unlucky horses, but we shall see.

On The Edge
No Dozing (Union Rags by Dixie Union by Dixieland Band by Northern Dancer and Stay Awake by Pulpit by A.P. Indy)
Next Race:
Trainer: Arnaud Delacour

Snap Decision (Hard Spun by Danzig and Salute by Unbridled)
Next Race:
Trainer: Claude McGaughey
Half brother of Mr. Speaker. Have to instantly like.

Good Samaritan (Harlan's Holliday by Harlan by Storm Cat and Pull Dancer by Pulpit)
Next race:
Trainer: William Mott
3rd BC Juvenile Turf, 8 furlongs
Summer Stakes, 8 furlongs

If he tries dirt, and wins he will join the list. But he does not even seem to be in training so that may be a long shot at this point.

Cool Arrow (Into Mischief by Harlan's Holiday and Phoenicia by Mr. Purpple by Deputy Minister)
Next Race: Risen Star, 8.5 furlongs
Trainer: Joe Sharp
Springboard Mile, 8 furlongs

Hate to take him down before he has raced at 3, but too many other good performances to ignore.
"And Allah took a handful of southerly wind, blew His breath upon it, and created the horse.... Thou shall fly without wings, and conquer without any sword. Oh, horse" - old Bedouin saying.

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